Season Predictions: The "Trap Game" That Should Never Have Been That Close

2. The "Trap Game" That Should Never Have Been That Close?

Greg's Take--I think the unexpectedly close game this year--much like in 2005--will be Penn State's trip to Northwestern on October 31. As history tells us, Penn State always plays tighter on the road, especially in the week following a "big game." In this case, the trip to Northwestern comes on the heals of a trip to the Big House to play an improved Michigan team. I don't know what it is about Michigan, but even in their "down years" they always seem to play Penn State tough. If this is the case, and Michigan is better this year, a big win in Ann Arbor will be followed by a conservative, tight game at Northwestern the following week. Adding to the conservative game plan will be the looming tilt against Ohio State the following week. The only positives for the Northwestern game, and maybe our saving grace, is that the game is slated for a 4:30 p.m. kickoff instead of the dreaded Noon central time games where Penn State always looks like they didn't wake up until the 3rd Quarter. In the end, Penn State will beat Northwestern (something like 31-24), but it should have never been that close.

Pete's Response—I love that choice, but I will have to disagree with you. There is always that game on the road in conference that gives us fits that shouldn’t and it will probably happen again this year. I just don’t think it will be Northwestern. I think we have way to much talent for them, so I will go with Michigan. We crushed them last year, and on paper there is no way we shouldn’t again. They will have a true freshman quarterback, if he is still alive by then, with a receiving core that will make our secondary look like a bunch of All-Americans, and a defense that shouldn’t be able to stop us. Yet, it is Michigan and we will have to fight for every point, and this game will probably come down a late 4th quarter drive. I just hope we have a comfortable enough lead that the referees don’t come in to play.

Greg's Final Word--You're right, I think the Michigan game will be tough because, well, it's Michigan after all. But by that time in the season, Michigan will have played home against Notre Dame, @ Michigan State, and @ Iowa, so we should have a pretty good idea of just how tough the game will be. They'll either be 4-3 having lost all three previously mentioned games, or they'll be 6-1 or 5-2 and we'll know if they've made significant improvements, like most 2nd year Rich Rodriguez teams (see, for example, West Virginia). The other option here is also Minnesota. They could be this year's "Iowa," if they are able to win some games early (like against California at home) and play teams like Penn State and Ohio State close on the road.

Season Predictions: Toughest Regular Season Game?

1. Toughest Regular Season Game (excluding possible bowl games)?

Pete's Take--How can it not be Eastern Illinois? Honestly, what do you know about them? The team probably knows just as much, but there can only be one answer to this question--and that is Ohio State. Penn State and Ohio State are the best two teams in the conference and have been for the past few years. This game like the recent few will probably decide the winner of the Big 10 and who goes to the BCS. On paper this should be a great game that should be another defensive struggle and Penn State may need someone to make a Mark Rubin like play to beat the Buckeyes at home.

Greg's Response--I know Eastern Illinois is the "trendy" pick, but come Pete, go out on a limb for once. Ohio State is clearly the "right answer" which is unusual for a opinion question. (I guess you should blame the question-maker.) The Ohio State game is almost always the "toughest game of the year," but this year there is one factor that will make it even tougher: a 4:30 p.m. kickoff instead of the customary 7 or 8 p.m. kickoffs of the past. What’s the difference this year? This year's game will be played in “November” and apparently the Big Ten does not allow night games in November because of "the weather." (Are you kidding me???) What a bailout for the Buckeyes. Beaver Stadium is one of the toughest places to place under normal conditions, but I would argue there's no place tougher than Beaver Stadium AT NIGHT. An 8 o'clock kickoff would have favored Penn State even more, now the earlier kickoff will only benefit Ohio State. The only other game I considered here was @ Michigan State to finish the year, which would have been even tougher if it's for an undefeated season, Big Ten Championship, or BCS Championship birth.

Pete's Final Word--I know I took the easy way out with Ohio State. I agree that Michigan State could be tough, but I don't know if they are quite ready to be in Penn State or Ohio State's class. Illinois could be tough early because they have a strong offense and early in the year they may have a shot at our defense before it comes together.

Basketball Team Gets The Message Loud-And-Clear

Basic Info: Just today, the Men's Basketball Team announced its 2009 non-conference schedule. Highlighting the slate are contests on the road @ Virginia (ACC-Big Ten Challenge), @ Temple, and a neutral tournament which includes the likes of Miami (Fla.), South Carolina, Davidson, and South Florida. The Nits also have at least one marquee home game before Jan. 1 when Virginia Tech visits the BJC on Dec. 12. Finally, perennial mid-major contenders American U. and and Robert Morris also make the trip to Happy Valley.

The Key Statistic: Most importantly, out of next year's opponents only one--Penn--was in the RPI's bottom 1/3 of teams, compared to last year's schedule which featured approximately six teams in the bottom 1/3 of the RPI rankings. And frankly, Penn is an Philly school, so I'll give that game a "pass" since we're still trying to break into that area in our recruiting and fan-support efforts.

Areas For Improvement: There are still two areas where the staff could improve the schedule:

1. First, there is no reason why we should not try to resume a home-and-home rotation with Pitt, or at least another high-profile Pennsylvania program like Villanova. (Sorry, Temple doesn't count).
2. Second, we should try to schedule another "national" program like we did before, even if it means we need to play it on the road with no guaranteed return trip to Happy Valley. (See, for example, Kentucky, N.C. State, Texas A&M, Rutgers, and North Carolina). Possibilities? How about Syracuse, Notre Dame, Tennessee, or Cal?

Final Thought: In the end, this schedule is a HUGE upgrade compared to last year and should continue to improve and grow in terms of strength every year that the program itself grows stronger under Coach DeChellis.

Position Battles To Watch #6: Special Teams

Topic: Who SHOULD and who WILL win these position battles?

6. Special Teams: Up for grabs except at punter?

Greg's Take--What we're accustomed to being a very stable part of the team is suddenly in doubt. Just think how spoiled we have been for the last 4 years: Kevin Kelly 4 year starter, Derrick Williams 3 year return specialist, etc. Sure the Nits return punter Josh Boone, but even Boone should be pushed by Sophomore Ryan Breen whose leg is clearly stronger than Boone's. In the end, Boone WILL and SHOULD keep his job barring injury simply because he earned it, he proved it, and he's reliable. The coaches can trust Boone. But that's more than I can say about Kicker and Return Specialists.

At kicker, walk-on Collin Wagner is in-line to take over for Kevin Kelly, but hot-shot Freshman Anthony Fera (who was highly recruited and enrolled early in January) is the only scholarship kicker on the roster. Fera clearly has the stronger leg and higher potential, but Wagner is a senior who is, like Boone, the more reliable option at this time. Plus Fera missed an extra point attempt during the Blue-White game. I don't care how inexperienced you are, a scholarship kicker can not miss an extra point under “scrimmage conditions” where there's no block attempted. Wagner SHOULD and WILL win this battle unless Fera makes strides.

Finally, lumping them all together--since Derrick Williams is gone and A.J. Wallace and Chaz Powell might not return kicks now that they are starters--I am hoping to see some freshmen in the return game, especially since we can not risk an injury to guys like Royster, Green, Powell, and Wallace. I want to see some combination of Devon Smith, Derrick Thomas, Darrell Givens, or Curtis Drake at kick returner. Powell will likely see time at kick and punt returner to start the year, but that should change. The Dark Horse for punt returner is Drew Astorino who, like Anthony Scirrotto and Calvin Lowry before him, plays free safety and has reliable hands. In the end, Powell (and some freshman) WILL start the year at KR/PR, but Devon Smith SHOULD be the starter from day one so he can cut his teeth against Akron, Syracuse, and Temple before he has to do it against Iowa under the bright lights.

Pete's Response--I agree with the Wagner assessment that he will probably win the kicking job. I don't think it will be easy, as I expect Fera to come back this summer more relaxed and ready to prove that he deserves the accolades he came in with. Yes he missed an extra point in the Blue-White game, but how nervous do you think he was? Hopefully that got it out of his system. Plus he was still getting used to being away from home; the kid should have been getting ready for prom, not kicking in front of 76,000. He will be fine, but I like the idea of getting him ready with kickoffs or something like that. Wagner will get the nod, but I bet it will be a very short leash.

I hope anything that we don't put Astorino back as punt returner. Not with the athletes that you mentioned. There is too much talent and speed to not put it back there. I would like to see Devon Smith, but I will bet on a red shirt. That leaves Powell or Green and I would be thrilled with either. I will say the smart money is on Powell.

Greg's Final Word--I like the idea of Fera starting with kick offs, so long as he keeps the ball in-bounds. Wagner does not have the leg that Kevin Kelly had, nor Fera has. Short leash? Probably, for everyone involved except for Boone. As for Smith v. Powell or Green, I think it has to be Powell. But I would not bet on a red shirt for Smith, necessarily. The staff brought him in to be a "return specialist" and that means getting him ready from day one, not sitting around on the practice squad running slot-receiver patterns against the first team defense—now there’s a scary thought. This is probably the area of the football team that NO ONE talks about being a huge question mark, while offensive line and the secondary get hammered in every pre-season publication. However, special teams could play an important role and be the difference between 9-3 and 11-1 or 12-0.

Position Battles To Watch #5: Mauti v. Stupar

Topic: Who SHOULD and who WILL win this position battle?

5. Mauti v. Stupar for the Fritz outside linebacker position?

Pete's Take--Goodness I hope it's Sophomore Michael Mauti. I just love his athleticism and what he showed as a true freshman last year. Again, this is no knock on Nate Stupar who is a special teams beast. My concern with him would be as a linebacker he isn't attacking full steam ahead like on special teams. We don't know if he can do that. Mauti went into the game against Michigan last year and helped turn it around. That's right, with all that talent we had on defense, a true freshman went in the game and didn't play scared, he rose to the occasion. Mauti, Lee, and Bowman. WOW!!!

Greg's Response--You could not be more right, Pete. Mauti is just another in the line of great linebackers to come through Linebacker U. Just like Poz, Connor, and Lee all played significant roles and Freshmen and Sophomores, Mauti will be the starting Fritz linebacker by the Iowa game. But I still have concerns--call me crazy--that this conservative staff will find a way to make Mauti earn the job during game time against Akron, Syracuse, and Temple. This means that it's not Stupar that would start day one, play one, but someone like Bani Gbadyu or Josh Hull (who god-bless-his-heart thinks he's going to start next year even, with Lee moving inside to Hull position). But it's got to be Mauti by Iowa, or sooner.

Pete's Final Word—I have no concerns that Hull with be the starter. He will be Lee’s backup and he should be fine with that. He doesn’t have the speed to be in the middle, so I have no idea how they could try him on the outside. Mauti will be too good and he will need to get some time early to get ready for the Big Ten season. My dark horse will be Mike Yancich. He will probably take over for Bowman when he leaves after this season and I think he will show brilliant flashes in the early parts of the year. If nothing else it will hopefully make the transition smoother for next season, when it will be his time to shine.