Season Predictions: The "Trap Game" That Should Never Have Been That Close

2. The "Trap Game" That Should Never Have Been That Close?

Greg's Take--I think the unexpectedly close game this year--much like in 2005--will be Penn State's trip to Northwestern on October 31. As history tells us, Penn State always plays tighter on the road, especially in the week following a "big game." In this case, the trip to Northwestern comes on the heals of a trip to the Big House to play an improved Michigan team. I don't know what it is about Michigan, but even in their "down years" they always seem to play Penn State tough. If this is the case, and Michigan is better this year, a big win in Ann Arbor will be followed by a conservative, tight game at Northwestern the following week. Adding to the conservative game plan will be the looming tilt against Ohio State the following week. The only positives for the Northwestern game, and maybe our saving grace, is that the game is slated for a 4:30 p.m. kickoff instead of the dreaded Noon central time games where Penn State always looks like they didn't wake up until the 3rd Quarter. In the end, Penn State will beat Northwestern (something like 31-24), but it should have never been that close.

Pete's Response—I love that choice, but I will have to disagree with you. There is always that game on the road in conference that gives us fits that shouldn’t and it will probably happen again this year. I just don’t think it will be Northwestern. I think we have way to much talent for them, so I will go with Michigan. We crushed them last year, and on paper there is no way we shouldn’t again. They will have a true freshman quarterback, if he is still alive by then, with a receiving core that will make our secondary look like a bunch of All-Americans, and a defense that shouldn’t be able to stop us. Yet, it is Michigan and we will have to fight for every point, and this game will probably come down a late 4th quarter drive. I just hope we have a comfortable enough lead that the referees don’t come in to play.

Greg's Final Word--You're right, I think the Michigan game will be tough because, well, it's Michigan after all. But by that time in the season, Michigan will have played home against Notre Dame, @ Michigan State, and @ Iowa, so we should have a pretty good idea of just how tough the game will be. They'll either be 4-3 having lost all three previously mentioned games, or they'll be 6-1 or 5-2 and we'll know if they've made significant improvements, like most 2nd year Rich Rodriguez teams (see, for example, West Virginia). The other option here is also Minnesota. They could be this year's "Iowa," if they are able to win some games early (like against California at home) and play teams like Penn State and Ohio State close on the road.